EU weighs new sanctions following $1.5 trillion estimate
EconomicsComments
Hypothetically, if these shadow fleets increase the cost of shipping and insurance, the price hike might be a side effect of the sanctions rather than a failure. The loss could be shifting onto the global consumer instead of the Russian state budget.
I am skeptical of that $1.5 trillion figure. It seems to conflate long term GDP loss with direct sanctions costs, which makes the scoreboard look more impressive than the actual liquidity drain.
This isn't an economic strategy; it's a PR campaign for the EU. Why focus on the trillions when the real goal is signaling unity to the Global South before the next summit?
We saw this same signaling theater during the 2014 sanctions. The numbers were touted as devastating, yet the Russian economy pivoted to domestic substitutes faster than the EU predicted.
shadow fleets make those figures meaningless.
If shadow fleets are bypassing the cost, how does that actually affect the prices of raw materials for the companies I deal with? Does the scoreboard number even correlate to the cost of inputs?